Egypt: Arab Winter?

Among analysts, criticists and journalist who consider the recent upheavals in the Middle East, now and then a sound can be heard that circumscribes the Arab Spring as being changed into an “Arab Winter”.
If someone would ask me whether this pessimistic conclusion of an Arab Winter applies to Egypt, I would answer that no, I do not think this conclusion is accurate when it comes to this state.
To begin with: it took Europe from the 15th till the 19th century to develop democratic states. To say that Egypt has lost the possibility of building a democracy, just because things do not go as fast as we expected, would be a bit short sighted.
Secondly, and as Koert Debeuf posited (in a guest lecture for students of the Conflict and Development programme at the University of Ghent), people may be okay with living in poverty – but they will never agree with brutal police force of the sort that killed Khaled Said back in 2010.

A third argument why I consider the Egyptian Revolution not to be a “Winter”, is that the protestors are young, frustrated people who smelled the perfume of freedom (to put in in the words of Maher Hamoud). They will not give in to have their newly obtained freedom taken away from them. Annexed to this is the power of social media (that, unlike in Belgium, do not so much play a social role, but a political one): people everywhere around the world know what is going on in a particular place, which augments the chances for effective mobilization and reaction.
A point of concern however, consists out of the role of the army. With the Tamarod Uprising in 2013 and the making of president of former commander-in-chief el-Sisi, the generals now rule by democratic proxy. The army turned a popular revolution from below, into a revolution from above (like already the Security Council for Armed Forces did back in 2011, and which can even be compared to the move of the Free Officers back in 1952). The army did so by demobilization, repression of dangerous dissent and co-optation of possible allies.

This turning point might give a reason to talk about a “Winter” – especially when one does not believe that the army now (in contrast to the Free Officers in 1952) wants to reach the same goal as the civilians do.
However, I estimate chances are high that the people are fed up with police brutalities and oppression and have enough persistence and courage to re-capture their revolution, so that in the end not the army (with its own agenda that is not necessarily in line with that of the people) but the people rise as a mass political agency. This way, if even for a short moment the idea of an Arab Winter occurred, we are reminded of the fact that after every winter, spring comes again.